Quantifying the impact of US state non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission (preprint)

COVID-19 is an ongoing public health emergency. Without a vaccine or effective antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions form the foundation of current response efforts. Quantifying the efficacy of these interventions is crucial. Using mortality data and a classification guide of state level responses, we relate the intensity of interventions to statistical estimates of transmission, finding that more stringent control measures are associated with larger reductions in disease proliferation. Additionally, we observe that transmission increases with population density, but not population size. These results may help inform future response efforts.